A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
